Showing posts with label primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label primary. Show all posts

School attendance by grade and age in Liberia

The article "Overage pupils in primary and secondary education" of June 2011 summarized data on school attendance from 36 countries and found that overage school attendance is common in sub-Saharan Africa. The countries with the highest share of overage pupils in the sample were Haiti, Liberia, Uganda, Rwanda, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, and Malawi. In Liberia, 93% of all pupils in primary and secondary education are at least one year overage for their grade and 84% are at least two years overage. This article takes a closer look at Liberia by analyzing data from the same Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) from 2007 that was analyzed for the earlier article.

The official primary school age in Liberia, as defined by the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED), is 6 to 11 years. The official secondary school age is 12 to 17 years. Given these school ages, a 6-year-old in grade 1 and a 7-year-old in grade 2 are in the right grade for their age. A 7-year-old in grade 1 would be one year overage and an 8-year-old in grade 1 would be two years overage. A 5-year-old in grade 1 would be one year underage.

The graph below shows the age distribution of pupils in primary and secondary education in Liberia. Pupils who are in the right grade for their age or underage are in a small minority. In the first twelve grades, their share never exceeds 9%. By contrast, as many as 98% of all pupils in a single grade are overage. The degree of overage attendance is astounding: 5% of all first graders are 9 or more years overage, meaning that they start primary school at age 15 or later. 19% of all first graders are at least 7 years overage and 44% are at least 5 years overage. In grade 8, 18% of all pupils are 9 or more years overage; while the official age for eighth graders is 13 years, one in five pupils in that grade in Liberia is 22 years or older.

Age distribution of pupils in primary and secondary education in Liberia, 2007
Graph with data on overage and underage pupils in primary and secondary education in Liberia
Source: Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) 2007.

What are the reasons for this high prevalence of overage school attendance? In Liberia, as in other countries of sub-Saharan Africa, many pupils enter school late for a variety of reasons that include poverty, a scarcity of educational facilities, and lack of enforcement of the official school ages. High repetition rates further exacerbate the problem of overage school attendance. Among the consequences of this age structure in school are a higher probability of dropout and reduced lifetime earnings caused by incomplete education or late entry into the labor market.

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Friedrich Huebler, 31 July 2011, Creative Commons License
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Overage pupils in primary and secondary education

Pupils can be overage for their grade for two reasons: late entry and repetition. Take for example a country where children are expected to enter primary school at 6 years of age. If a child enters grade 1 at age 7, he or she is one year overage for the grade. A child who enters grade 1 at age 8 and repeats the grade will be three years overage for the grade; two of the three years are due to late entry and the third year is due to repetition.

Children who are many years overage are less likely to complete their education. If they stay in school, they graduate later than pupils who entered school at the official starting age. These overage graduates enter the labor market late and often with lower educational attainment. As a consequence, they are likely to have lower cumulative earnings over their lifetime than persons who graduated and entered the labor market at a younger age and with higher educational attainment. For the country as a whole this in turn means reduced national income and slower economic growth.

Overage school attendance is common in sub-Saharan Africa but also occurs in other regions. The figure below shows data from 36 nationally representative household surveys that were conducted between 2004 and 2009. 34 of these surveys were Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the remaining two surveys, those for Bangladesh and Kyrgyzstan, were Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). For each country, the graph shows the share of children in primary and secondary education who are at least one or two years overage for their grade. The entrance ages and durations of primary and secondary education used in this study are those specified by the International Standard Classification of Education (ISCED).

Percentage of children in primary and secondary education who are at least 1 or 2 years overage for their grade
Graph with data on overage children in primary and secondary education
Source: Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), 2004-2009.

In the sample of 36 countries, the share of children who are at least one year overage for their grade ranges from 5 percent in Armenia to 95 percent in Haiti. Other countries where at least three out of four pupils in primary or secondary education are overage include Liberia (93%), Uganda (86%), Rwanda (83%), Cambodia (78%), Mozambique (76%), and Ethiopia (75%). In addition to Armenia, the percentage of pupils who are at least one year overage is below 10 percent in Moldova and Egypt (8%).

The share of children in primary and secondary education who are at least two years overage for their grade ranges from 1 percent in Armenia to 85 percent in Haiti. In addition to Haiti, at least half of all pupils are two or more years overage in Liberia (84%), Uganda (67%), Rwanda (65%), Ethiopia (59%), Cambodia (55%), Malawi (51%), and Madagascar (50%). On average, the share of children who are at least two years overage is 19 percent less than the share of children who are at least one year overage.

However, there are exceptions. In Albania and the Ukraine, 43 and 26 percent respectively of all children in primary and secondary education are at least one year overage. By contrast, only 5 and 2 percent respectively are at least two years overage. This means that in these two countries, a relatively large number of children enter school one year late or repeat one grade, but hardly any children enter school two years late or repeat more than one grade. Late entry and repetition are therefore less likely to have negative consequences on lifetime earnings and national income in Albania and the Ukraine than in other countries.

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EFA Global Monitoring Report 2011

Cover of the EFA Global Monitoring Report 2011The Education for All Global Monitoring Report 2011 was released by UNESCO on 1 March 2011. This year's edition of this annual report has the title The hidden crisis: Armed conflict and education. The report documents the impact of violent conflict on education and the long-lasting negative effects on educational attainment and literacy.

Today, 28 million or over 40 percent of all children out of school (67 million worldwide) live in countries affected by conflict, although these countries are home to only 116 million or 18 percent of the global population of primary school age (653 million) (see Figure 1). (Only out-of-school children in low and lower-middle income conflict-affected countries were counted to arrive at the total of 28 million. In addition, for large countries like India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan, only children living in conflict-affected areas were included in the 28 million children affected by conflict.) In conflict areas, the out-of-school rate is around 24 percent, compared to 7 percent in other parts of the world. Children affected by armed conflict are thus more than three times as likely to be out of school as other children.

Conflict-affected countries also have some of the lowest levels of literacy. In these countries, only 79 percent of youth between 15 and 24 years and 69 percent of adults are literate, compared to 93 percent of youth and 85 percent of adults in other countries.

War does not only destroy lives and schools, it also diverts resources from education to military spending. The Global Monitoring Report documents how lack of access to education or exposure to the wrong kind of education can contribute to persistent inequality, prejudice and renewed armed conflict, a vicious cycle that is difficult to break.

Lastly, the Global Monitoring Report 2011 examines the role of development assistance in conflict-affected countries and argues for increased and more effective aid for the education sector.

Figure 1: Population of primary school age and children out of school in countries affected and not affected by armed conflict, 2008
Pie chart with data on children in conflict and non-conflict countries
Source: UNESCO 2011, pages 132, 308, 309; author's calculations.

Reference
  • UNESCO. 2011. EFA Global Monitoring Report 2011: The hidden crisis: Armed conflict and education. Paris: UNESCO. (Download in PDF format, 6.4 MB)
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Educational attainment in the United States, 1940-2009

In the United States, the level of education of the adult population has increased steadily since the middle of the 20th century. The share of the population 25 years and over who attended college increased from 10 percent in 1940 to 56 percent in 2009. 30 percent of the population in this age group had completed 4 or more years of college in 2009. The share of the population with only elementary education or no formal schooling fell from 60 percent in 1940 to 6 percent in 2009. High school reached its peak as the most common level of education in the 1970s and 1980s, with a share around 50 percent, but younger cohorts are more likely to continue their education at the post-secondary level.

This increase in educational attainment of the work force has contributed to a strengthening of U.S. competitiveness in the global economy. At the same time, the increased demand for highly skilled workers emphasizes the importance of secondary and higher education for individuals in search of employment.

The trends in years of schooling of the adult U.S. population from 1940 to 2009 are visualized in the figure below. The table that follows lists data for selected years. The data on educational attainment were collected with the Current Population Survey (CPS), a joint survey by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau that has been conducted since 1940.

Years of school completed by population 25 years and over, 1940-2009
Graph with trends in educational attainment in the United States from 1940 to 2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, September 2010

Years of school completed by population 25 years and over, 1940-2009
Years of school Percent of population
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2009
0 to 4 years elementary school 13.5 10.8 8.3 5.3 3.4 2.4 1.6 1.4
5 to 8 years elementary school 46.0 36.1 31.4 22.4 14.1 8.8 5.4 4.1
1 to 3 years high school 15.0 16.9 19.2 17.1 13.9 11.2 8.9 7.9
4 years high school 14.1 20.1 24.6 34.0 36.8 38.4 33.1 31.1
1 to 3 years college 5.4 7.1 8.8 10.2 14.9 17.9 25.4 26.1
4 or more years college 4.6 6.0 7.7 11.0 17.0 21.3 25.6 29.5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, September 2010

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Children out of school: Global trend 1999-2008

68 million children of primary school age were out of school in 2008 according to estimates by the UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS). Compared to 1999, when 106 million children were out of school, this is a decrease of over 38 million (see Figure 1). However, in spite of the observed progress over the last decade, the Millennium Development Goal of universal primary education by 2015 will not be reached if current trends continue unchanged.

Figure 1: Children of primary school age out of school, 1999-2008
Bar chart with global number of children out of school from 1999 to 2008
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Data Centre, November 2010.

The UIS also publishes data on the regional distribution of children out of school, but complete data are only available until 2007. 43 percent - 30.4 million - of all children out of school in 2007 lived in sub-Saharan Africa (see Figure 2). A further 25 percent - 17.7 million - lived in South and West Asia. These two regions combined accounted for two thirds of the global out-of-school population. The shares of the remaining regions were as follows: 13 percent of all children out of school lived in East Asia and the Pacific, 9 percent in the Arab States, 4 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean, 3 percent in North America and Western Europe, 2 percent in Central and Eastern Europe, and less than 1 percent in Central Asia.

Figure 2: Regional distribution of children out of school, 2007
Pie chart with regional distribution of children out of school in 2007
Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Data Centre, November 2010.

Regional and global estimates of the number of children out of school can be obtained from the UIS Data Centre. On the main Data Centre page at stats.uis.unesco.org, click on Predefined Tables and then Education. Table 20H, "Regional sum of primary school age children out of school", lists the total, male and female number of children of primary school age out of school for the period 1999 to 2008.

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Primary school entrance age and duration

Education for All (EFA) and the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) both aim at universal primary education. All children worldwide should attend and complete primary school by 2015. However, national education systems differ and the meaning of primary education for all children therefore varies from country to country.

The UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) maintains a database with the entrance age and duration of primary education for 204 countries and territories. Table 1 summarizes the distribution of primary school entrance ages from the UIS database. In nearly two thirds of all countries, children are expected to enter primary school when they are 6 years old. In a further third of countries, the entrance age is 5 or 7 years. Two countries have different primary school entrance ages, Ireland with 4 years and Mongolia with 8 years..

Table 1: Primary school entrance age
Age Countries Percent
4 years 1 0.5
5 years 29 14.2
6 years 126 61.8
7 years 47 23.0
8 years 1 0.5
Total 204 100.0
Source: UIS Data Centre, May 2010.

The geographic distribution of the entrance ages is shown in the map in Figure 1. 6 years is the common primary school start age in most of North and South America, Western Europe, Africa, the Arab States, and East Asia, with some exceptions. 7 years is more common in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. 7 years is also the primary school start age in some large countries: Brazil, China and Russia.

Figure 1: Primary school entrance age
World map with national primary school entrance ages
Source: UIS Data Centre, May 2010.

The duration of primary school, shown in Table 2, ranges from 3 to 8 years. In 126 of 204 countries and territories, primary school has a duration of 6 years. In about 25 countries each, the duration is 4, 5 or 7 years. The shortest duration, 3 years, is reported for Armenia, Russia and Turkmenistan. In Ireland, which has the earliest entrance age with 4 years, children have to attend primary school for 8 years.

Table 2: Primary school duration
Age Countries Percent
3 years31.5
4 years 26 12.8
5 years 23 11.3
6 years 126 61.8
7 years 25 12.3
8 years 1 0.5
Total 204 100.0
Source: UIS Data Centre, May 2010.

The map in Figure 2 illustrates the primary school duration by country. 6 years is the most frequent duration in North and South America, East Asia and the Pacific, the Arab States and most of Africa except for Southern Africa, where 7 years is the most common primary school duration. In Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia, and South and West Asia, primary education is typically shorter, with a duration of 4 or 5 years.

Figure 2: Primary school duration
World map with national primary school duration
Source: UIS Data Centre, May 2010.

What are the implications of the different primary school entrance ages and durations for the MDG and EFA goal of universal primary education by 2015? The official duration of primary education is closely linked to the number of children out of school. As an example, assume that a country has a primary school duration of 5 years and that the number of children in and out of school is evenly distributed across the official primary school ages. Shortening the duration of primary school from 5 to 4 years would immediately reduce the number of children out of school by 20 percent. However, the primary school net enrollment rate, the official indicator for the MDG of universal primary education, would not change and the country would therefore not be closer to the 2015 goal.

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Children of primary and secondary school age out of school

The UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) publishes annual estimates of the number of children of primary school age out of school. A recent paper by Michael Bruneforth and Peter Wallet, Out-of-school adolescents (UIS 2010), extends the analysis to children of lower secondary school age. Any child enrolled in primary, secondary or tertiary education is considered in school, regardless of the child's age. Only children that are truly excluded from education are counted as out of school.

The paper's regional and global estimates of the number and percent of children out of school are reproduced in this article. Table 1 lists the population of primary and lower secondary school age in 2007. Worldwide there were about 653 million children of primary school age and 388 million children of lower secondary school age. More than half of these children lived in South and West Asia and East Asia and the Pacific.

Table 1: Population of primary and lower secondary school age by region (million), 2007
Region Primary Lower secondary Total
Sub-Saharan Africa 124.9 57.9 182.7
Arab States 41.4 21.9 63.5
South and West Asia 176.8 106.8 284.2
Central Asia 5.6 8.0 13.8
East Asia and the Pacific 173.8 106.5 281.2
Central and Eastern Europe 22.2 20.3 42.1
North America and Western Europe 50.8 31.0 81.6
Latin America and the Caribbean 58.6 35.9 93.7
World 652.6 388.2 1042.5
Source: UIS 2010, page 10, Table 1; author's calculations. - Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Figure 1 illustrates the regional distribution of the population of primary and lower secondary school age. The number of children in these age groups is plotted along the horizontal axis. The vertical axis indicates the share of children of primary and lower secondary school age in each region. The regions with the largest number of school-age children in 2007 were South and West Asia (284 million), East Asia and the Pacific (281 million), and Sub-Saharan Africa (183 million). More than 60 percent of the combined population of primary and lower secondary school age were of primary school age. Central Asia and Central and Eastern Europe were exceptions, with a greater share of children of lower secondary school age than in other regions. The large share of primary-age children in Sub-Saharan Africa is a symptom of its high population growth rate.

Figure 1: Population of primary and lower secondary school age by region, 2007
Spine plot showing the distribution of the population of primary and lower secondary school age by region in 2007
Source: UIS 2010, page 10, Table 1; author's calculations. - CEE: Central and Eastern Europe, NAWE: North America and Western Europe, LAC: Latin America and the Caribbean.

The share and number of children out of school are listed in Table 2. At the global level, 11 percent or 72 million of all children of primary school age and 18 percent or 71 million of all children of lower secondary school age were out of school. The combined global share of children out of school was 14 percent. Out-of-school rates were highest in Sub-Saharan Africa, where 26 percent of all primary school-age children and 37 percent of all secondary school-age children were excluded from education.

Table 2: Children of primary and lower secondary school age out of school by region, 2007
Region Primary Lower secondary Total
Percent Million Percent Million Percent Million
Sub-Saharan Africa 25.8 32.2 36.8 21.3 29.3 53.5
Arab States 13.9 5.8 19.5 4.3 15.8 10.0
South and West Asia 10.2 18.0 27.3 29.1 16.6 47.2
Central Asia 4.8 0.3 4.9 0.4 4.8 0.7
East Asia and the Pacific 5.2 9.0 10.0 10.6 7.0 19.7
Central and Eastern Europe 7.0 1.6 9.6 1.9 8.3 3.5
North America and Western Europe 3.8 1.9 4.3 1.3 4.0 3.3
Latin America and the Caribbean 5.1 3.0 5.5 2.0 5.3 5.0
World 11.0 71.8 18.3 71.0 13.7 142.8
Source: UIS 2010, page 10, Table 1.

As illustrated in Figure 2, out-of-school rates are always higher at the secondary level of education than at the primary level. This is not surprising because not all students complete primary education and not all of those who graduate from primary school transfer to secondary school to continue their education. In addition to Sub-Saharan Africa, South and West Asia (27 percent) and the Arab States (20 percent) also had a high share of children of secondary school age out of school.

Figure 2: Children of primary and lower secondary school age out of school by region, 2007
Bar chart showing the share of children of primary and lower secondary school age out of school by region in 2007
Source: UIS 2010, page 10, Table 1.

The distribution of children out of school by region in 2007 is shown in Figure 3. A comparison with the population distribution in Figure 1 makes clear that children from Sub-Saharan Africa and South and West Asia were disproportionately more likely to be out of school than children from other regions. More than two thirds of the 143 million out-of-school children of primary and lower secondary age were from Sub-Saharan Africa (54 million) and South and West Asia (47 million). 20 million children out of school lived in East Asia and 10 million in the Arab States. The remaining 13 million children out of school were from Latin America and the Caribbean (5 million), Central and Eastern Europe (3.5 million), North America and Western Europe (3.3 million), and Central Asia (0.7 million).

Figure 3: Children of primary and lower secondary school age out of school by region, 2007
Spine plot showing the distribution of children of primary and lower secondary school age out of school by region in 2007
Source: UIS 2010, page 10, Table 1. - CEE: Central and Eastern Europe, NAWE: North America and Western Europe, LAC: Latin America and the Caribbean.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, the Arab States, North America and Western Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean most children out of school were of primary age. In South and West Asia, East Asia, and Central and Eastern Europe most children out of school were of lower secondary age. At the global level, the number of out-of-school children of primary school age and lower secondary school age was roughly equal (see Table 2).

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Regional disparities in school life expectancy

The school life expectancy is the number of years of schooling a child of school entrance age can expect to receive. It is calculated as the sum of age-specific enrollment rates for the specified levels of education. The UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS) provides data on the school life expectancy for the following levels of education: pre-primary, primary to secondary, primary to tertiary, and tertiary.

Figure 1 displays the average school life expectancy for primary to secondary education in eight geographic regions - Arab States, Central Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, East Asia and the Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean, North America and Western Europe, South and West Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa - and for the world as a whole. For each region, the total, male and female school life expectancy is shown. A high value for this indicator means that school enrollment rates as well as retention rates are high and that children are likely to spend a high number of years in formal education.

The values plotted in Figure 1 are also listed in Table 1. In addition to the school life expectancy in years, Table 1 lists the gender parity index for each region. The GPI is the ratio of the female to male school life expectancy. Values below 1 mean that girls have a lower school life expectancy than boys, while GPI values above 1 mean the opposite. A GPI of 1 indicates gender parity. All data in Figure 1 and Table 1 were obtained from the UIS Data Centre and are for the years 2007 and 2008.

Figure 1: School life expectancy in years, primary to secondary education, 2007/2008
Graph with total, male and female school life expectancy by geographic region
Data source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Data Centre, October 2009.

Children in North America and Western Europe have the highest school expectancy. On average, boys and girls alike can expect to spend about 12.3 years in school. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the average school life expectancy is 11.7 years. In three other regions children are also likely to receive more than 10 years of primary and secondary education: Central Asia (10.8 years), Central and Eastern Europe (10.5 years), and East Asia and the Pacific (10.4 years). In Sub-Saharan Africa (8.1 years), South and West Asia (9.1 years), and in the Arab States (9.3 years) the average school life expectancy is lower than in the other regions.

Table 1: School life expectancy in years, primary to secondary education, 2007/2008
Region Total Male Female GPI
Arab States 9.3 9.8 8.8 0.90
Central Asia 10.8 10.9 10.6 0.98
Central and Eastern Europe 10.5 10.6 10.3 0.96
East Asia and the Pacific 10.4 10.3 10.5 1.02
Latin America and the Caribbean 11.7 11.6 11.8 1.02
North America and Western Europe 12.3 12.3 12.3 1.00
South and West Asia 9.1 9.4 8.7 0.92
Sub-Saharan Africa 8.1 8.7 7.6 0.87
World 9.8 10.0 9.5 0.95
Note: GPI is the gender parity index (female / male school life expectancy).
Data source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Data Centre, October 2009.

Sub-Saharan Africa, the Arab States, and South and West Asia have not only the lowest school life expectancy, they are also the worst performers in terms of gender parity. As the graph shows, there is a relatively large gap between the male and female school life expectancy in these regions, with GPI values ranging from 0.87 in Sub-Saharan Africa to 0.92 in South and West Asia. On average, girls receive one year less education than boys in these three regions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the school life expectancy is 7.6 years for girls and 8.7 years for boys.

In the other regions, there is little or no difference between the school life expectancy of boys and girls. In Central and Eastern Europe, the GPI is 0.96, with a school life expectancy of 10.6 years for boys and 10.3 years for girls. North America and Western Europe have reached gender parity. In East Asia and the Pacific, and in Latin America and the Caribbean, the school life expectancy is higher for girls than for boys; in both regions, the GPI is 1.02.

Compared to the beginning of the decade, the school life expectancy has increased in all regions, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the gap between the best- and worst-performing countries is still large. In addition, gender disparity continues to be a problem, especially in regions where the school life expectancy is low.

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NER, GER and universal primary education

The net enrollment ratio (NER) in primary education is one of the official indicators for the Millennium Development Goal of universal primary education. The primary NER is the share of children of primary school age that are enrolled in primary school.

Primary NER = Number of children of primary school age enrolled in primary school
Number of children of primary school age

If all children of primary school age are enrolled in primary school, the primary NER is 100 percent. A primary NER below 100 percent means that not all children of primary school age are in primary school; some may be out of school, some may be in preschool, in secondary school or in other forms of education. By definition, the NER cannot exceed 100 percent.

The gross enrollment ratio (GER) is a related indicator. The primary GER indicates how many children, regardless of their age, are enrolled in primary school, relative to the population of primary school age.

Primary GER = Number of children enrolled in primary school
Number of children of primary school age

The value of the GER can exceed 100 percent. Values above 100 percent mean that some children above or below primary school age are in primary school. A GER above 100 percent is usually an indicator of overage enrollment, for example due to repetition or late entry.

Ideally, all children in a country enter primary school at the official primary school entrance age and graduate from the final primary grade after the official duration of primary school, for example after four or six years. In this case, the primary NER would be 100 percent and universal primary education would be achieved. If no children repeated a grade, the primary GER would also be 100 percent. If we assume that some children have to repeat a grade and remain in primary school although they have reached official secondary school age, the primary GER would be slightly above 100 percent.

However, we can demonstrate that a primary NER of 100 percent is not a necessary condition for universal primary education. Similarly, the primary GER can be below 100 percent in a country, although universal primary education has been achieved. For the demonstration we refer to data for Japan. According to the Global Education Digest 2009 by the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Japan has achieved universal primary education with a primary NER and GER of 100 percent in 2007, the most recent year with data.

What would happen to the NER and GER if Japanese children systematically entered and graduated from primary school one year early or one year late? These hypothetical situations can be simulated with data from the World Population Prospects 2008 by the UN Population Division. Table 1 lists the estimated population of Japan between 5 and 12 years of age in the year 2009.

Table 1: Estimated population of Japan between 5 and 12 years, 2009
Age
 Population
5 years 1,120,774
6 years 1,134,317
7 years 1,145,758
8 years 1,155,440
9 years 1,163,697
10 years 1,171,297
11 years 1,179,006
12 years 1,185,028
5-10 years 6,891,283
6-11 years 6,949,515
7-12 years 7,000,226
Source: UN Population Division. 2009. World Population Prospects: 2008 Revision.

Scenario 1: entry and graduation at official age

Primary school in Japan has 6 grades and the official primary school age is 6 to 11 years. If all children enter primary school at age 6 and graduate after 6 years, the primary NER and GER can be calculated as follows.

Primary NER = Number of children of primary school age enrolled in primary school
Number of children of primary school age

= 6,949,515 / 6,949,515

= 100%

Because there is no overage or underage enrollment, the number of children in primary school is identical to the number of children of primary school age (6 to 11 years) and thus the primary GER is identical to the primary NER.

Primary GER = Number of children enrolled in primary school
Number of children of primary school age

= 6,949,515 / 6,949,515

= 100%

Scenario 2: early entry

If all children enter and graduate from primary school one year early, the primary NER and GER are no longer 100 percent. The population of primary school age (6-11 years) is still 6,949,515, but in this age group only children between 6 and 10 are in primary school, in addition to children aged 5 years. In this scenario, children age 11 are already in secondary school. The number of children of primary school age enrolled in primary school is therefore 6,949,515 - 1,179,006 = 5,770,509 and the primary NER is no longer 100 percent but 83 percent.

Primary NER
(early entry) 		= Number of children of primary school age enrolled in primary school
Number of children of primary school age

= 5,770,509 / 6,949,515

= 83.0%

The primary GER is still near 100 percent because the population in primary school (5-10 years) is similar to the population of primary school age (6-11 years).

Primary GER
(early entry) 		= Number of children enrolled in primary school
Number of children of primary school age

= 6,891,283 / 6,949,515

= 99.2%

Scenario 3: late entry

Now assume that all children enter and graduate from primary school one year late. Only children between 7 and 12 years are in primary school. Of the population of primary school age (6-11 years) only those between 7 and 11 are in primary school, in addition to children aged 12 years. The number of children of primary school age enrolled in primary school is therefore 6,949,515 - 1,134,317 = 5,815,198 and the primary NER is now 83.7 percent.

Primary NER
(late entry) 		= Number of children of primary school age enrolled in primary school
Number of children of primary school age

= 5,815,198 / 6,949,515

= 83.7%

As in scenario 2 with early entry, the primary GER is near 100 percent because the population in primary school (7-12 years) is close to the population of primary school age (6-11 years).

Primary GER
(late entry) 		= Number of children enrolled in primary school
Number of children of primary school age

= 7,000,226 / 6,949,515

= 100.7%

Table 2 and Figure 1 summarize the primary NER and GER under the three scenarios described above. In all three scenarios there is universal primary education but in the case of early or late entry, the primary NER is far below 100 percent. On the other hand, the primary GER is equal to or near 100 percent in all three scenarios, due to the small difference between the number of children in the individual age cohorts.

Table 2: Primary NER and GER in Japan in the case of age-appropriate, early and late entry and graduation
Scenario for primary school enrollment
 Primary NER (%) Primary GER (%)
Entry and graduation at official age 100.0 100.0
Entry and graduation one year early 83.0
 99.2
Entry and graduation one year late 83.7
 100.7

Figure 1: Primary NER and GER in Japan in the case of age-appropriate, early and late entry and graduation
Bar graph with primary school NER and GER for three scenarios of school entry and graduation

In an ideal situation, when all or almost all children enter primary school at the official entrance age and graduate after the official duration of primary school, both the NER and GER are near 100 percent. However, as demonstrated with data for Japan, a primary NER and GER of 100 percent is not a necessary condition for universal primary education. In countries where children enter school before or after the official entrance age, universal primary education can exist although the primary NER may be below 100 percent.

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Disparities in primary school attendance by ethnicity, language or religion

In many parts of the world, members of ethnic, linguistic or religious minorities face barriers to access to education. One example is Nepal, where caste and ethnicity are closely linked to primary and secondary school attendance rates. Because of the importance of this issue, "Minorities and the right to education" was the thematic focus of the first United Nations Forum on Minority Issues, which took place in Geneva on 15 and 16 December 2008.

The presence of disparities in national education systems can be demonstrated with data from Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), nationally representative household surveys that are carried out with the support of UNICEF. The MICS data collection process is explained in the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey Manual 2005 (UNICEF 2006). MICS surveys conducted in 2005 and 2006 collected data on school attendance by ethnicity, language or religion in the following countries: Albania, Belize, Gambia, Georgia, Guinea-Bissau, Guyana, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lao PDR, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Sierra Leone, Thailand, Togo, Uzbekistan, and Viet Nam.

Minority Rights Group International (MRG) defines minorities as "non-dominant ethnic, religious and linguistic communities, who may not necessarily be numerical minorities. ... [These groups] may lack access to political power, face discrimination and human rights abuses, and have 'development' policies imposed upon them" (MRG 2009). The MICS data alone are not sufficient to identify groups that can be considered minorities as defined by MRG because the size of particular groups in relation to the entire population of a country does not indicate whether these groups are discriminated in any way. This article therefore examines differences in school attendance between all ethnic, linguistic or religious groups for which data are available. Disparities between these groups can provide insights into whether any part of a country's population faces discrimination or is otherwise disadvantaged.

With the school attendance data from the MICS surveys it is possible to generate an education parity index that measures relative disparity across different groups of disaggregation, following the methodology developed by Huebler (2008) for data on school attendance by sex, area of residence, and household wealth. The education parity index has a range of 0 to 1, where 1 indicates parity between all groups of disaggregation. This methodology can also be applied to primary school attendance rates by ethnicity, language or religion. To calculate the index, the attendance rate of the group with the lowest value is divided by the attendance rate of the group with the highest value, yielding a value between 0 and 1. The value 1 means that children from different ethnic, linguistic or religious groups have the same primary school attendance rates. Smaller values indicate increasing disparity.

The calculation of the parity index can be illustrated with data from Macedonia. A MICS survey conducted in 2005 collected data on school attendance by ethnic group of the household head. Four ethnic groups are identified in the data and their respective primary school net attendance rates (NAR) are shown in Table 1.

Table 1: Primary school attendance in Macedonia
Ethnic group of household head
 Primary NAR (%)
Albanian 97.8
Macedonian 97.5
Roma 61.1
Other ethnic group 81.9
Total 94.9
Data source: MICS 2005.

Albanians in Macedonia have the highest primary NAR, 97.8 percent. By contrast, Roma have the lowest NAR, 61.1 percent. In other words, only 6 of 10 Roma children of primary school age are attending primary school. With these values, the primary school parity index for Macedonia can be calculated as follows:

Primary school parity index = Lowest primary NAR / Highest primary NAR

= Primary NAR of Roma / Primary NAR of Albanians

= 61.1 / 97.8

= 0.62

The value 0.62 means that the attendance rate of the most disadvantaged group, Roma, is 62 percent of the attendance rate of the least disadvantaged group, Albanians. In other words, the primary NAR of Roma is 38 percent below the primary NAR of ethnic Albanians. 38 percent is not the absolute but the relative difference in school attendance because the education parity index is a relative measure of disparity.

Applying the same formula to primary NAR values from other MICS surveys yields the values in Figure 1, which shows the parity index for primary school attendance by ethnicity, language or religion. In the 17 countries with data, the parity index ranges from a high of 0.99 in Guyana to a low of 0.59 in the Lao People's Democratic Republic. In Laos, speakers of the Lao language are significantly more likely to attend primary school than speakers of other languages, whose primary school NAR is 41 percent below the NAR of Lao speakers. Similar disparities exist in Togo, where members of the Para-Gourma ethnic group have a much lower primary school attendance rate than members of the Akposso-Akébou group, and in Macedonia.

Uzbekistan and Viet Nam are characterized by the near absence of disparities in primary school attendance between different ethnic, linguistic or religious groups, similar to Guyana. In these countries, the primary NAR of the group with the lowest attendance rate is only 1 or 2 percent below the primary NAR of the group with the highest attendance rate.

Figure 1: Primary school parity index: School attendance by ethnicity, language or religion
Bar graph showing primary school parity index in 17 countries
Data source: MICS 2005-2006.

The primary school net attendance rates used to calculate the parity index are listed in Table 2. The table also shows whether ethnicity, language or religion were chosen to identify minorities in a country. This choice was made by the national agencies that implemented the survey. Eight countries selected ethnicity, seven countries selected language, and two countries selected religion as the characteristic that best captures minority status.

Table 2: Disparities in primary school attendance by ethnicity, language or religion
Country Year Characteristic Primary NAR (%) Parity index
Min. Max.
Albania 2005 Religion 91.3 94.9 0.96
Belize 2006 Language 86.6 100 0.87
Gambia 2006 Ethnicity 53.2 72.9 0.73
Georgia 2005 Ethnicity 86.9 97.5 0.89
Guinea-Bissau 2006 Language 44.9 64.7 0.69
Guyana 2006 Ethnicity 95.7 96.8 0.99
Kazakhstan 2006 Language 95.4 98.9 0.96
Kyrgyzstan 2006 Language 86.7 95.4 0.91
Lao PDR 2006 Language 52.4 88.7 0.59
Macedonia 2005 Ethnicity 61.1 97.8 0.62
Montenegro 2005 Ethnicity 69.4 100 0.69
Serbia 2005 Ethnicity 77.9 100 0.78
Sierra Leone 2005 Religion 68.3 72.3 0.94
Thailand 2005-06 Language 94.8 98.2 0.97
Togo 2006 Ethnicity 55.2 91.1 0.61
Uzbekistan 2006 Language 94.9 96.8 0.98
Viet Nam
 2006 Ethnicity 93.8 95.7 0.98
Data source: MICS 2005-2006.

References
  • Huebler, Friedrich. 2008. Beyond gender: Measuring disparity in South Asia using an education parity index. Kathmandu: UNICEF.
  • Minority Rights Group International (MRG). 2009. Who are minorities?
  • United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF). 2006. Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey manual 2005: Monitoring the situation of women and children. New York: UNICEF.
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Population structure and children out of school

Sub-Saharan Africa is the region with the highest percentage of children out of school. At the same time, the population of most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa is increasing and children of primary school age constitute a large and growing share of the population.

The link between the population structure and the number of children out of school is shown in the figures and table below. Data on the share of children of primary school age out of school were obtained from the Childinfo website of UNICEF. The official primary school ages in individual countries from the Data Centre of the UNESCO Institute for Statistics were combined with demographic data from the UN Population Division to calculate the share of children of primary school age in each country's population. In total, data for 177 countries were available. All values are for the year 2007.

In Figure 1, the population of primary school age as a percentage of the total population is plotted along the horizontal axis. At the lower end of the scale are Belarus, Bulgaria, Germany, Latvia, Russia, and Ukraine. In these countries, children of primary school age account for less than 4 percent of the total population. The countries with the highest share of children of primary school age are located in Sub-Saharan Africa: Uganda (21 percent), Zambia (20 percent), Lesotho, Mozambique, Somalia (19 percent), Malawi, Swaziland, and Tanzania (18 percent).

The share of children out of school is plotted along the vertical axis. For five countries, the available statistics indicate that less than 0.5 percent of children are out of school: Japan, Malaysia, Spain, Uruguay, and Uzbekistan. In eight countries, half or more of all children are not in school: Somalia (77 percent), Chad (64 percent), Niger (62 percent), Liberia (61 percent), Ethiopia (55 percent), Eritrea (54 percent), Burkina Faso (53 percent), and Haiti (50 percent). Except for Haiti and Pakistan, the 20 countries with the highest share of children out of school are located in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The color of the marker for each country in Figure 1 indicates the geographic region according to the grouping used for the UN Millennium Development Goals (MDG). The size of each marker indicates the absolute size of the population of primary school age. The big red circle is the marker for India and the big green circle is the marker for China. Other countries with a large number of children of primary school age are Indonesia in South-Eastern Asia, USA in the developed countries, and Nigeria in Sub-Saharan Africa.

The distribution of the points in Figure 1 shows that countries with a small share of children of primary school age in the total population also tend to have a small percentage of children out of school. By contrast, countries with a relatively large population of primary school age also have a higher percentage of children out of school. This positive correlation between the two variables is confirmed by a linear regression of the percent of children out of school on the percent of children of primary school age and the squared percent of children of primary school age. The predicted share of children out of school is indicated by the dark gray line. The light gray band around the prediction line indicates the 95 percent confidence interval.

Figure 1: Population of primary school age and children out of school by country, 2007
Scatter plot with country data on the share of children of primary school age and the share of children out of school in 2007
Note: Marker size indicates the number of children of primary school age in a country.
Data source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, UNICEF, UN Population Division.

For Figure 2, the data from the 177 countries in Figure 1 were combined by MDG region. The share of children of primary school age in a region's population is plotted along the horizontal axis and the share of children out of school along the vertical axis. The colors of the markers are the same as in Figure 1. The regional values, summarized in Table 1, reflect the 177 countries for which data were available.

Figure 2: Population of primary school age and children out of school by MDG region, 2007
Scatter plot with regional data on the share of children of primary school age and the share of children out of school in 2007
Note: Marker size indicates the number of children of primary school age in a region.
Data source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, UNICEF, UN Population Division.

At the global level, about 10 percent of the population are of primary school age. The regional values range from 4.6 percent in the Commonwealth of Independent States to 16.5 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa. The average share of children out of school across the 177 countries with data is 15.5 percent. In six regions, fewer than 10 percent of all children are out of school: Commonwealth of Independent States, developed countries, Eastern Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Northern Africa, and South-Eastern Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa has by far the highest share of children out of school, with 36.2 percent, followed by Southern Asia with 20 percent and Oceania with 17.1 percent.

Table 1: Population of primary school age and children out of school by MDG region, 2007
MDG region
 Population of primary school age as share of total population (%) Children of primary school age out of school (%)
Developed countries 6.4 4.6
Commonwealth of Independent States 4.6
 6.8
Eastern Asia 7.1
 0.8
South-Eastern Asia 10.8
 6.5
Oceania 14.5
 17.1
Southern Asia 10.8
 20.0
Western Asia 12.5 12.5
Northern Africa 11.9
 5.9
Sub-Saharan Africa 16.5
 36.2
Latin America and the Caribbean 10.3 7.2
World 9.8 15.5
Data source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics, UNICEF, UN Population Division.

Due to their current population structure and demographic trends, countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have to provide schools and teachers for a relatively larger number of children than countries in other regions. The Millennium Development Goal of universal primary education by 2015 is therefore more difficult to meet for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa than for countries with a relatively small and constant or shrinking population of primary school age.

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